日本光伏标杆电价下调点评: 例行调整无碍市场发展,装机规模仍将高位维持!

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portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日本经济产业省portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">24portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日公布portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年度(portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">-2016portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月)可再生能源发电电价政策，其中光伏标杆电价调整方式如下：

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">)portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10kwportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以下：portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">由portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2014portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年度的portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">37portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日元portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">/portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">千瓦时下调为portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">33portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日元portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">/portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">千瓦时(无输出控制兼容设备)、portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">35portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日元portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">/portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">千瓦时(有输出控制兼容设备)；

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">)portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10kwportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上：portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">由portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2014portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年度的portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">32portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日元portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">/portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">千瓦时下调为portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">29portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日元portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">/portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">千瓦时，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">7portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月份后进一步下调为portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">27portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日元portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">/portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">千瓦时。

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portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">对此，我们有如下点评：

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portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">、标杆电价连续三年例行下调，下调幅度与方式符合此前预期。portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日本于portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2012portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">7portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月起开始实施新的光伏等可再生能源标杆电价政策，此后portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2013portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">、portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2014portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年连续两年下调，本次为第三年例行下调。从下调幅度来看，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10KWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以下项目下调portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.41%-10.81%portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10KWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上项目第一阶段下调portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">9.38%portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，第二阶段下调portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6.90%portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。整体上，本次portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10KWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上项目电价下调幅度相对较大，但由于此前portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月份日本经济贸易产业省固定上网电价委员会召开的portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年电价评估报告中已给出预期，因此本次具体调整对市场冲击不大。

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portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">、portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10KWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上项目两阶段下调主要由于光伏“利润优待期”的结束。portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">本次portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10KWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上项目下调幅度较大主要是由于两阶段下调，第一阶段portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">9.38%portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">的下调幅度则与往年相当。两阶段下调的原因主要是：在portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2012portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年设置可再生能源标杆电价政策时，为促进光伏发展，日本给予光伏发电三年的“利润优待期”，从而使得光伏电站相比其他新能源具有更高的portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">IRRportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">水平，该政策于今年portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">7portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月份到期，此后不再延续，故再次下调了电价。

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">、标杆电价调整以维持portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">IRRportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">水平不变为前提，对市场装机热情影响不大。portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日本近年光伏标杆电价调整均以维持portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">IRRportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">水平不变为前期，本次亦不例外，因此预计对市场装机热情影响不大。根据产经省测算数据，电价调整后，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10KWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以下项目portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">IRRportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">水平维持portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2014portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年的portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3.2%portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10KWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上项目源于利润优待期的结束，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">IRRportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">由portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2014portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年的portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6%portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">下降至portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5%portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。

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portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">
portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">、预计日本光伏市场仍将维持平稳，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年装机保底portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，有望冲击portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2014portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年(非日本财年)日本光伏装机约portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，太阳能电池组件出货portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">9.28GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，我们判断portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年装机仍将维持平稳，保底portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，有望继续冲击portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">：

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">)本次电价调整并未明显影响电站portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">IRRportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">水平，在日本低利率环境下，光伏电站投资依然具有较高的吸引力；

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">)日本目前已核准光伏项目portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">73.4GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，已完成装机项目仅约portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">22GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，因此大量已确定电价的核准未建项目将支撑近几年光伏装机。同时，由于日本标杆电价以项目核准时点确定，因此预计电价调整将使得日本市场存在一定程度抢装，而又不会过于剧烈。

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">)此前暂停光伏并网申请的九州电力等电力公司目前已逐步放开光伏并网申请；

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">)根据日本经产省测算，即使是在目前电力系统下，日本可承受光伏装机为portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">61GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，目前尚有较大的发展空间。portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">根据日本portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">JPEAportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今年portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月报告测算，portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015-2017portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年日本均将维持portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8GWportant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">左右的装机水平。

portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">

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portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">、总之，对日本市场不必悲观，未来portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2-3portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年其仍将是全球主要的光伏市场之一。portant; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">投资方面，目前与日本市场景气度相关的企业主要为美股光伏制造龙头企业，如晶澳太阳能、天合光能、阿特斯等，以及单晶产业链企业，如隆基股份，由于此前美股制造企业对日本市场悲观预期已有足够的反映，而隆基股份成长逻辑并非局限于日本市场发展，因此预计本次电价调整对市场影响不大。

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